Selection Sunday

Christmas is here. As I mentioned last week, I have an unhealthy infatuation with the NCAA Bracket. For the past three years I have attempted to predict the teams going to the Tournament and what seeds they will have. I have had varying results.

Last week I found a website called The Bracket Project that has graded the majority of the bracket predictions on the web. The rankings are based on receiving 3 points for every team correctly predicted, 2 points for every seed correct, and 1 point for every team with in one seed. In 2006, I scored 278. Ranking 17 out of 23 brackets. In 2007 I had my best year, I ranked 2nd out of 30 brackets with a score of 297. Beating the likes of Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, CBSSportline, CNNSI, Rivals, and Yahoo. Then last year I was brought back to earth quickly with a score of 293, which ranked 49 of 53. Lets see how I do this year.

The Bubble was extremely tight this year. I had 6 final teams fighting for 3 spots. My last 3 in were Minnesota, Arizona, and Creighton. My last 3 out, Auburn, Wisconsin, and St. Mary's. Auburn was knocked out at the last second by conference foe Mississippi St. making a surprise run in the SEC Tournament. This was not based on SEC affiliation simply by being the final team in on my board.

The two biggest difference you will see in my bracket will be the exclusion of Wisconsin and Duke as a 1 seed. Wisconsin just did not have the big wins Arizona and Minnesota had and had the same number of top 100 wins as Creighton. As for Duke as a 1. I think the committee will reward them for being the only highly ranked team to take care of business during Championship week.

So to the predictions

1 seeds - Louisville, Pitt, UNC, Duke
2 seeds - Uconn, Memphis, Michigan St, Oklahoma
3 seeds - Kansas, Wake Forest, Missouri, Villanova
4 seeds - Washington, Syracuse, UCLA, Florida St
5 seeds - Gonzaga, Illinois, Arizona St, Purdue
6 seeds - West Virginia, Marquette, Tennessee, Ohio St.
7 seeds - Utah, LSU, Clemson, Xavier
8 seeds - Butler, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas A&M
9 seeds - USC, BYU, Cal, Boston College
10 seeds - Maryland, Michigan, Dayton, Temple
11 seeds - Utah St, Arizona, Siena, Minnesota
12 seeds - Cleveland St, Creighton, Western Kentucky, Mississippi St.
13 seeds - Akron, Binghamton, Northern Iowa, VCU
14 seeds - North Dakota St, Portland St., CS Northridge, American
15 seeds - Cornell, Robert Morris, East Tennessee St., Stephen F Austin
16 seeds - Alabama St, Morgan St., Chattanooga, Morehead St., Radford

Enjoy the Selection Show!

Follow Up - Grading BZ Nation in 2009

64/65 teams. 28 seeds correct and 54 seeds within 1 line.

This year the avearge grade the Bracket Project gave to its 60 brackets was 303.4. The picks above score a 302, putting me below the average bracket and finishing 39th out of 60. BZ Nation does not accept mediocrity so this was not an acceptable year. However you would have been better getting your picks from The Nation than The Washington Times, Yahoo, The New York Post, The Sporting News or Sports Illustrated. All publications we outscored.

Now on to the games!

A Look At This Year's Bubble

March Madness is sneaking up on us and no doubt next week at this time you will probably be wasting productive time at work studying the recently released NCAA Tournament Bracket. This is my favorite time of year and I may be a dork but the NCAA Bracket is something I have always been enamored with. As a kid, you could say #12 seed in the Southeast in 1992 and I would say New Mexico St. These days unfortunately, I am not that bad. Life has surely gotten in the way of me being completely obsessive but I am still close. Three years ago I began predicting the bracket and have been mildly successful, In 2006 and 2007 I got 61/65 teams correct and last year improved to 64/65. I have gotten seeds correct an average of 27 times and been with one seed on at least 53 teams in each of the past two seasons. This blog will be a preview of next week's projection by giving you a few teams to watch during Championship Week to see if they can sneak off the Bubble.

Right now I believe 28 teams are fighting for 11 spots in the field of 65. Some of these 28 teams obviously have a better chance than others but they are in no order.

Dayton - Should be in with a couple quality Non-conference wins but a loss in their first A-10 Tournament game could mean trouble

Rhode Island - A team on every body's Last 4 In or Last 4 Out. I think they need to do some damage this week to be included.

Temple - A long shot but with wins over Tennessee and Penn St. a run to the Finals this week and they are at least in the conversation.

Maryland - Need 2 wins in ACC Tournament

Virginia Tech - See above

Miami - See above

Kansas St. - Not much of a chance but a few big wins this week in the Big 12 Tournament and losses by other Bubble Teams might get them on the fringe

Providence - 10-8 in the Big East is great but a lack of big Non-Conference win might keep them at home

Georgetown - Say there is no chance at 16-13? If they get they beat St. John's, Marquette, and Villanova in New York this week watch out at 19-14 with the #1 schedule in the country. Remember Georgia a few years ago getting in at 16-14?

Notre Dame - Like Georgetown needs a deep run in Big East Tournament to even be considered

Ohio St. - Good RPI. Probably safe but will sweat if they lose first Big Ten game.

Penn St. - Loss to Iowa Saturday killed them. Need a few more wins.

Wisconsin - See Ohio St.

Minnesota - See Wisconsin

Michigan - I think they get in with wins over Duke and UCLA

Northwestern - Great story but needs a few wins this week

Creighton - Gave the Committee a chance to leave them out by losing Saturday

New Mexico - Good record in MWC but squarely on the Bubble

San Diego St. - See above

UNLV - Great wins early but can they get in over teams they finished behind in Mountain West?

Arizona - Should be in but a win over Arizona St. Thursday will make Selection Sunday easier

USC - Make a run to PAC 10 Championship and we will see

South Carolina - No team has ever been left out at 10-6 in the SEC. Could this be the first?

Auburn - If South Carolina is not the first 10-6 SEC team left out, Auburn will be

Kentucky - Here because of the name, need a lot to happen to get even close

Florida - Will be one of last few in or out

Davidson - If they sneak in we will know CBS has a spot at Selection Committee Table

St. Mary's - Beat Gonzaga tonight and end the debate. Lose and we will see if the Committee takes into account 3 of 5 losses came without best player

These teams need Siena, Memphis, Butler, and Utah St. to win their tournaments this week or Siena and Utah St will join them on the list and Butler and Memphis will take one of the 11 available bids.

See you Selection Sunday!